THE BIG PICTURE |
Updated: 28-Jan-13 Analysis of major issues impacting the financial markets.
Copper - A Lagging Leading Indicator In our October 15, 2012, article, Trends That Can Make All the Difference, we called attention to the underperformance of some key market indicators following the announcement of QE3 in September. Specifically, we focused on copper, oil, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. We are taking another look at these indicators today, many of which are behaving in a way that seemingly portends good things for the economic outlook. By extension, that should mean good things for the earnings and stock market outlook as well. These indicators, however, are not flashing a unanimous and indisputable sense of optimism about economic growth prospects. There is a peculiar laggard in the mix; and it is the one indicator you might least expect given the market's optimism over the US housing recovery, the surge in auto sales, and the growth pickup in China. That indicator is copper. Time and Attention At the time of our October post, we were not certain...
To read the full column and all archives you must subscribe to
Calendar Key: Actual refers to the
actual figures after their release. Briefing.com Forecast refers to Briefing.com forecast. Briefing.com Consensus represents the market consensus estimate
for each indicator. Prior represents the last actual for each indicator.
In cases where the release is a revision to an earlier estimate, as
is possible with GDP, productivity, and U of Michigan sentiment, the
last actual refers to the preliminary estimate for the same period.
After a report is released, the Prior column reflects the prior figure
The Revised From column lists the prior number as it
was originally reported, i.e. before revision. Not included: Mitsubishi and Redbook chain store indexes
are released every Tuesday morning. M2 is released every Thursday at
16:30 ET. Trading Impact Briefing.com’s opinion of the trading impact of this particular release.
Briefing.com Consensus estimate provided by Retail Metrics.
Price Reaction is
the percentage price change of the stock on the
first day of trading following the release of
Same Store Sales. The purpose of this data point
is to identify the price sensitivity of a stock
to its monthly same store sales report.
whether company issued upside, downside, in-line
or mixed revenue or EPS guidance in this month's
same store sales release.